The Cabinet Secretary for Interior and National Government Administration has declared the climate change as a national security threat and declared that chiefs and their assistants have been mobilized to sustain the national tree planting cover in the country. Tree planting is one of the most effective ways through which we can address climate change in this part of the world. According to the 2023 Economic survey by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), our tree cover as at 2022 was 8.83 percent from 7.13 percent in 2018, which means that for five years, we have increased our forest cover by a mere 0.34 percent! This national tree cover has strong correlation with the annual rainfall received in the country which dropped from 1164 millimeters of rainfall in 2018 to 630 mm in 2022 according to the economic survey.
As the climate change impacts accelerates, they affect socio-economic and environmental challenges in a given region in many angles, which can contribute to insecurity at local, national and international levels. Security challenges linked to climate change includes food, water and energy supplies due to reduced area carrying capacity due to climate change effects. Loss of water or scarce ware resources leads to collapsing of agricultural yields and pasture for livestock keepers, increases chances of more deserts growing in a country; increased competition over access to natural resources, loss of livelihoods, climate related disasters, forced migration and displacements; damage to infrastructure including civilian and military infrastructure which might affect rapid deployment and re-deployment of security forces. There is also likelihood of destruction of coastal infrastructure which can lead to massive challenges in all fronts including lower tourism levels. Failure to live up with current commitments to reduce effects of climate change is estimated to cost the global economy up to between $ 150 to 792 trillion by 2021 and abiding by the commitments may see loss of between $ 127 to 616 trillion by 2100.
Few countries have integrated programmes and projects that address specific risks associated with climate change, despite the known intersection between climate change, peace and security globally. In the Kenyan case, the conflicts and crises are likely to be blown out of proportion by climate change if left unmitigated. This calls for sustained climate change mitigation and adaptation, in addition to addressing potential triggers of environmental hazards, in the process of peace building and security stabilization. Insecurity hinders climate hampers climate change adaptation measures and programmes, which may make the already vulnerable households and communities poorer and less resilient to the interlinked climate change and security crises. Dr Giti is an urban management, public – private partnerships (PPP) and environment specialist. mutegigiti@gmail.com , @danielgiti
Dr. Daniel Mutegi Giti 