Here is how to align economic performance to Kenya Vision 2030 development blueprint

Economic Survey of 2022 shows that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 7.5% (supported by growth of manufacturing by 6.9%, wholesale and retail trade at 7.9%, real estate at 6.7%, transportation and storage at 7.2% and financial/insurance services at 12.5%. This GDP success means that growing the economy by a mere 2.5%, Kenya can reach the 10% GDP growth targeted under targeted Vision 2030. GDP is the standard measure of the value created/added in a region through production of goods and services minus the cost of imports.

Five aspects stand out from the survey that must be aligned to the Vision 2030. First, the dipping of the private sector employment should be reversed by increasing the level of private engagement and contribution to the economy. This is because under the vision 2030, the bulk of investments and financing (70% private sector and 30% government) of projects should be done by the sector. The private sector should build on the developed infrastructure and the other enabling environment by the government to create more jobs and employment opportunities. This is in line with the World Bank enabling markets to work strategy of 1993, where it advised governments against actual involvement in the economy, noting that governments work best as enablers for private sector to thrive.

Secondly, only the top five counties contributed to 47% of the GDP that is Nairobi (27.5%), with a concern that Nairobi, which can contribute more than 60% of GDP, has stagnated at this position of roughly 26% GDP growth since devolution started. Other top five counties were Kiambu (5.9%), Mombasa (5.2%), Nakuru (4.9%) and Machakos (3.4%); while bottom five counties contributed only 1.7% of the GDP namely: Wajir (0.5%), Lamu, Tana River, Samburu and Isiolo had each 0.3% GDP. There is need to leverage on the urbanization – globally 80% of any country’s GDP is generated in urban areas – and devolution to generate more wealth to achieve vision 2030 aspirations of more than 50% of Kenya being urbanized. Thirdly, university loans (HELB) declined and hence 34,531 students couldn’t get the loans for their education. To achieve vision 2030 goals on adequately trained labour force, lets introduce innovative education financing options like utilization of diaspora bonds, alumni associations, research programmes and consultancy, social impact bonds, debt swaps and debt conversion development bonds. Fourthly, there is still production of expensive thermal power, rising to 67% reduced water levels for hydropower production, but signs are also there that production of green energy like wind and solar is on the rise. To achieve vision 2030 aspirations for clean and effective energy, more clean, green, and cost-effective energy due to our endowments, must be developed.

To achieve the vision 2030, efforts must be taken to strengthen five good pointers: First, enrollment to technical and vocational training for diploma and certificates increased by 22% to 265,095 from 217,440 in 2020. Let’s us encourage this trend to increase availability of key skills in areas to support manufacturing and industrialization. Secondly, savings in saccos grew to 540.5 billion of which 523 billion was advanced as loans and hence net deposits of 17.5 billion. To reach vision 2030 aspirations, let us leverage on the Sacco movement to improve on the economic wellbeing, housing (provide housing infrastructure to Sacco held land), educational, investment and other prosperity issues. Thirdly, the national cake grew to 12.1 trillion from 10.8 trillion vision 2030 requires that more patriotic Kenyans join hands in baking our cake by being gainfully employed, including being self-employed. Fourthly, manufacturing sector of the big four agenda grew by 6.9%. to achieve vision 2030, Kenya should leverage on the sector to create more jobs for our people through application of friendly tax regimes, import substitution and protectionism of local industries. Fifth, the construction sector grew by 6.6% through growth in construction of roads through Public Private Partnerships (PPPs). Roads increased from 11,000 to 11,100 kilometers for national and international roads while overall the sector by 2.3% to reach 21,800 kilometers. To achieve vision 2030, more PPPs that introduce efficiency, effectiveness, technology, innovation, capital, and managerial capabilities should be utilized